4 interesantes lecciones, extraidas de este articulo de Tyler Cowen en el NY Times de hoy:
i) China: China is much further from world economic leadership than we may have thought. Furthermore, poverty in China remains severe.
ii) Mortgage: [M]any of the people now losing their homes committed fraud. And when a mortgage goes into default in its first year, the chance is high that there was fraud in the initial application, especially because unemployment in general has been low during the last two years.
iii) Music: [P]eople tend to buy their favorite song from an album, online, rather than buy the whole album. Music company profits may not recover until other hardware manufacturers compete more successfully with Apple, which is selling songs very cheaply, knowing that the music will fuel demand for iPods.
iv) Cold and Life: More people die in cold periods than in homicides. When retired people move to a warmer state, their life expectancy rises dramatically. In fact, 8 to 15 percent of the increase in American life expectancy over the last 30 years comes from people moving to warmer climates.
Lo que no sabemos:
i) We’re still not sure what is driving the increase in income inequality.
ii) We’re also not sure whether 2008 will bring a recession or slow but continued growth.
Aunque la probabilidad de recesion es cada vez mayor (mas de esto aca).
i) China: China is much further from world economic leadership than we may have thought. Furthermore, poverty in China remains severe.
ii) Mortgage: [M]any of the people now losing their homes committed fraud. And when a mortgage goes into default in its first year, the chance is high that there was fraud in the initial application, especially because unemployment in general has been low during the last two years.
iii) Music: [P]eople tend to buy their favorite song from an album, online, rather than buy the whole album. Music company profits may not recover until other hardware manufacturers compete more successfully with Apple, which is selling songs very cheaply, knowing that the music will fuel demand for iPods.
iv) Cold and Life: More people die in cold periods than in homicides. When retired people move to a warmer state, their life expectancy rises dramatically. In fact, 8 to 15 percent of the increase in American life expectancy over the last 30 years comes from people moving to warmer climates.
Lo que no sabemos:
i) We’re still not sure what is driving the increase in income inequality.
ii) We’re also not sure whether 2008 will bring a recession or slow but continued growth.
Aunque la probabilidad de recesion es cada vez mayor (mas de esto aca).
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